Risk and Drupal 8

Every year Real Story Group (RSG) releases an updated snapshot of the web CMS market. In the 2011 snapshot, Drupal was labeled a relatively high risk and was placed on the outermost risk ring (see below). Primarily, this was because Drupal 7 had just launched, few modules had been upgraded, and there was a scarcity of new Drupal 7 talent. 

RSG 2011 Platform: Drupal is perceived as high risk.

In 2012, Drupal was moved down the Product axis of the updated RSG snapshot (see below). The Drupal community, according to RSG analysis, had stabilized on Drupal 7. The platform could be deemed less of a risk. Drupal 7 was placed in similar spots on the 2013 and 2014 RSG snapshots.

RSG 2012 Platform: Drupal's perceived risk has decreased.

Now where will Drupal 8 be placed on the 2015 RSG snapshot? Will it be identified again as a high risk, as Drupal 7 was in 2011?

Before you answer these questions, know that Drupal 8 embraces two important updates that may mitigate perceived risk. The first is a structured release cycle, which should add stability, encourage backward compatibility, and increase corporate investment immediately. The second is an agreed-upon standard for Drupal 6 or Drupal 7 upgrades via Migrate in Drupal Core. In theory, an easier upgrade path should provide a catalyst for robust Drupal 8 adoption and, as a result, lower perceived risk associated with the "new" platform.

For more information about Drupal's new structured release cycle, watch Larry Garfield's presentation Future Friendly Evolution and the Drupal Release Cycle. Also read Proposal to manage the Drupal 8 release cycle by Dries Buytaert. For more information about Migrate in Drupal 8, read D8 Improved upgrade process by Moshe Weitzman. Then investigate the IMP intiative.

Okay, now! Where will Drupal 8 be placed on the 2015 RSG snapshot? Will it be identified again as a high risk, as Drupal 7 was in 2011? Add your comments below.

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I would say that as long as RSG does not change its outlook, it will continue to place Drupal on the outer risk ring each time a new version is released.

It would be helpful if they showed Drupal 7 and Drupal 8 separately in the chart, as they are effectively different products by the amount of changes between the major versions.

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